Post by Admin on Oct 17, 2015 20:16:50 GMT 8
TYPHOON KOPPU (LANDO) UPDATE NUMBER 008
Issued at: 7:45 AM PhT (23:45 GMT) Saturday 17 October 2015
Next Update: Saturday afternoon, 17 October 2015
Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) continues to slowly intensify while jogging slightly northwestward over the Philippine Sea. Northern and Central Luzon particularly the province of Aurora is currently under a serious threat from this typhoon. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the shores of Aurora by early Sunday morning (Oct 18)...with a Strike Probability of 90 to 100 percent.
Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of TY KOPPU (LANDO).
DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.
RAINFALL
Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Southern Cagayan, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Quirino and Isabela - Beginning this afternoon through Sunday evening (Oct 18).
Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Rest of Cagayan incl. the Babuyan Islands, Apayao, Ilocos Provinces, Abra, La Union, Pangasinan, Northern Zambales, Tarlac, Pampanga, Northern Quezon incl. Polillo Islands, and Nueva Ecija - Beginning this afternoon through Sunday evening (Oct 18).
Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Catanduanes, Camarines Provinces, Albay, Rest of Quezon, Marinduque, Batangas, Rest of Zambales, Bataan, Laguna, Cavite, Rizal and Metro Manila - Today through Sunday Evening (Oct 18).
WINDS
Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Eastern Isabela, Eastern Quirino and Aurora - Today through Sunday (Oct 18).
STORM SURGE
Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 6 m (3 to 20 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Camarines Norte, Northern Camarines Sur (Partido), Northern Catanduanes, Polillo Islands - Today...and along Eastern Isabela and Northern Aurora - Tonight through Sunday (Oct 18).
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 17...2100 GMT.
Classification/Name: TY KOPPU (LANDO)
Location: Over the western part of the Philippine Sea (near 15.9N 124.9E)
About: 277 km north-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes...or 301 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 165 kph near the center...Gustiness: 205 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (southwest and west of the center): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 850 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 120 km from the center
Past Movement: Northwest @ 06 kph
Forecast Movement: West @ 14 kph
Towards: Aurora
Closest Point of Approach (CPA) to Aurora: Sunday Early Morning [from 12AM-5AM PhT]
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK
TY KOPPU (LANDO) will resume its slow westerly track for the next 24 hours...turning sharply northwest to north-northwest for the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, KOPPU (LANDO) shall traverse the western part of the Philippine Sea today towards Eastern Luzon and shall make landfall over the coast of Northern Aurora by Sunday early morning (Oct 18). On Monday early morning (Oct 19), KOPPU (LANDO) shall be over the mountains of Cordillera...very near Banaue Rice Terraces or along the Ifugao-Mountain Province Border.
TY KOPPU (LANDO) is forecast to continue intensifying within the next 12 to 24 hours and shall lose strength through 48 hours after making landfall. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds strengthening to 195 kph on Sunday early morning (Oct 18)...and decreasing to 120 kph on Monday early morning (Oct 19).
The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies further as it starts to make landfall over the coast of Northern Aurora...about 11 km south of Casiguran, Aurora [2AM OCT 18: 16.1N 122.1E @ 195kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens rapidly while slowly traversing the mountains of Cordillera in Northern Luzon...turns northwest to north-northwest...about 75 km west of Cauayan City, Isabela [2AM OCT 19: 17.0N 121.0E @ 120kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Just a Tropical Storm (TS) while traversing the provinces of Kalinga and Apayao...turns north-northeast...about 45 km west-northwest of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan [2AM OCT 20: 17.7N 121.3E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
ADDITIONAL DISTANCES
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat Oct 17, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 15.9º N Lat 124.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 214 km NNE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 294 km NE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 3: 314 km NE of Naga City, CamSur
Distance 4: 364 km E of Baler, Aurora
Distance 5: 443 km ENE of Metro Manila
Issued at: 7:45 AM PhT (23:45 GMT) Saturday 17 October 2015
Next Update: Saturday afternoon, 17 October 2015
Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) continues to slowly intensify while jogging slightly northwestward over the Philippine Sea. Northern and Central Luzon particularly the province of Aurora is currently under a serious threat from this typhoon. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the shores of Aurora by early Sunday morning (Oct 18)...with a Strike Probability of 90 to 100 percent.
Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of TY KOPPU (LANDO).
DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.
RAINFALL
Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Southern Cagayan, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Quirino and Isabela - Beginning this afternoon through Sunday evening (Oct 18).
Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Rest of Cagayan incl. the Babuyan Islands, Apayao, Ilocos Provinces, Abra, La Union, Pangasinan, Northern Zambales, Tarlac, Pampanga, Northern Quezon incl. Polillo Islands, and Nueva Ecija - Beginning this afternoon through Sunday evening (Oct 18).
Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Catanduanes, Camarines Provinces, Albay, Rest of Quezon, Marinduque, Batangas, Rest of Zambales, Bataan, Laguna, Cavite, Rizal and Metro Manila - Today through Sunday Evening (Oct 18).
WINDS
Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Eastern Isabela, Eastern Quirino and Aurora - Today through Sunday (Oct 18).
STORM SURGE
Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 6 m (3 to 20 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Camarines Norte, Northern Camarines Sur (Partido), Northern Catanduanes, Polillo Islands - Today...and along Eastern Isabela and Northern Aurora - Tonight through Sunday (Oct 18).
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 17...2100 GMT.
Classification/Name: TY KOPPU (LANDO)
Location: Over the western part of the Philippine Sea (near 15.9N 124.9E)
About: 277 km north-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes...or 301 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 165 kph near the center...Gustiness: 205 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (southwest and west of the center): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 850 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 120 km from the center
Past Movement: Northwest @ 06 kph
Forecast Movement: West @ 14 kph
Towards: Aurora
Closest Point of Approach (CPA) to Aurora: Sunday Early Morning [from 12AM-5AM PhT]
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK
TY KOPPU (LANDO) will resume its slow westerly track for the next 24 hours...turning sharply northwest to north-northwest for the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, KOPPU (LANDO) shall traverse the western part of the Philippine Sea today towards Eastern Luzon and shall make landfall over the coast of Northern Aurora by Sunday early morning (Oct 18). On Monday early morning (Oct 19), KOPPU (LANDO) shall be over the mountains of Cordillera...very near Banaue Rice Terraces or along the Ifugao-Mountain Province Border.
TY KOPPU (LANDO) is forecast to continue intensifying within the next 12 to 24 hours and shall lose strength through 48 hours after making landfall. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds strengthening to 195 kph on Sunday early morning (Oct 18)...and decreasing to 120 kph on Monday early morning (Oct 19).
The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies further as it starts to make landfall over the coast of Northern Aurora...about 11 km south of Casiguran, Aurora [2AM OCT 18: 16.1N 122.1E @ 195kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens rapidly while slowly traversing the mountains of Cordillera in Northern Luzon...turns northwest to north-northwest...about 75 km west of Cauayan City, Isabela [2AM OCT 19: 17.0N 121.0E @ 120kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Just a Tropical Storm (TS) while traversing the provinces of Kalinga and Apayao...turns north-northeast...about 45 km west-northwest of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan [2AM OCT 20: 17.7N 121.3E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
ADDITIONAL DISTANCES
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat Oct 17, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 15.9º N Lat 124.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 214 km NNE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 294 km NE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 3: 314 km NE of Naga City, CamSur
Distance 4: 364 km E of Baler, Aurora
Distance 5: 443 km ENE of Metro Manila